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China module prices are dropping rapidly, with opening bids for some recent domestic projects all lower than CNY1.5/W, noted multiple sources. Downstream demand is
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Pent-up demand from what one source calls “all-time high” procurement, with China’s National Energy Administration approving a third batch of Gigawatt-base power projects, means falling prices could find a floor. According to the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, the country is set to install up to 120 GW of solar power in 2023.
According to the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, the country is set to install up to 120 GW of solar power in 2023. But manufacturers should have big module inventories accumulating, noted another source, which if unleashed on the market may suggest more downslides on the horizon.
Yet, while Chinese solar panels are 20% cheaper than their American equivalents, this number is not the difference between the success and failure of the U.S. solar energy industry. High interest rates and the permitting quagmire must also be addressed. Ending China’s dominant position in the global solar market is not possible.
Even with the support of subsidies and tariffs, U.S. solar manufacturers struggled to compete with the flood of cheap solar panels pouring out of China into the global market. While some argue that the U.S. should loosen restrictions on cheap Chinese solar panels to accelerate renewable energy deployment, this approach is unsustainable.
Today, a majority of solar modules produced globally can be traced to the Uyghur Region. While Chinese solar panels may produce carbon-emissions-free energy, producing these panels is not so environmentally friendly. Coal, the dirtiest fossil fuel, accounts for a majority of China's electricity generation.
Consolidation in China's crowded solar power sector is pushing smaller players out of the market, but excess production capacity - with more on the way - threatens to keep global prices low for years.
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